The Navarro Express

January’s ISM Manufacturing Index hit 52.6 — back in expansion and the strongest reading in over a year. That single number undercuts claims that Trump’s tariffs are hurting industry. Investment is rising, factories are being built, and construction jobs are leading the way before permanent manufacturing payrolls arrive. The data show an industrial revival taking shape under Trumpnomics.

January CPI shows continued disinflation: prices up just 0.17% for the month, core steady, and the 10-year yield falling even after a strong jobs report. Energy cooled, core goods were flat, shelter is moderating, and real wages are rising. This is supply-driven disinflation with solid growth—not recession.

Blowout January jobs report: 172,000 private-sector jobs added while federal payrolls fell. Unemployment dipped as prime-age participation hit its highest level in over two decades. With big Biden-era job revisions, the picture is clear: a shift from bureaucracy to private production, rising real wages, and a Trumpnomics-driven expansion.

Congress is moving to undo one of President Trump’s most important trade enforcement wins: closing the de minimis tariff loophole. After Trump shut down a system that let foreign sellers evade billions in tariffs while flooding the U.S. with unchecked packages—including counterfeits and fentanyl—a new bill seeks to quietly bring it back under a friendly-sounding name. 

The latest Producer Price Index came in a bit hot—but inflation is a trend story, not a one-month headline. The real signal: energy is down, goods prices are flat, and inflation remains far below its peak. What’s rising is tied to healthy markets and returning industrial activity. Orders are coming back, factories are busy again, and America’s manufacturing muscle is rebuilding under President Trump—whether Jay Powell wants to hear it or not.

For decades, foreign dumping — China first and worst — hollowed out America’s steel industry, shutting mills, wiping out jobs, and leaving the U.S. dependent on overseas steel for everything from bridges to warships. President Trump’s 2018 tariffs stopped the collapse, but Biden weakened them with loopholes and exemptions. In 2025, Trump doubled steel tariffs to 50%, and the results were immediate: U.S. steel production rose, America surpassed Japan for the first time since 1999, and investment is flooding back into modern American mills. Steel is back — because tariffs work.

For nearly 50 years, America failed to build a new aluminum smelter—until now. A major new smelter in Oklahoma marks the return of U.S. aluminum production, driven by President Trump’s tariffs and strict enforcement. The episode explains why aluminum is critical to national security, how Biden-era exemptions weakened the industry, and how Trump’s renewed tariffs, closed loopholes, and tough trade policy are bringing investment, jobs, and industrial strength back home.

America’s steak prices aren’t being driven by “inflation” — they’re being driven by cartel power at the slaughterhouse. With just four firms controlling most U.S. beef processing, and two major players effectively controlled from Brazil, American ranchers get paid less, families pay more, and profits flow offshore. As Brazil exports and China buys, foreign demand can end up setting the price of dinner in the United States. That’s why President Trump has directed the DOJ to launch a full antitrust investigation to break the choke point and restore real competition in America’s food supply.

Revised third-quarter GDP is an early signal the Trump manufacturing boom is taking root. Growth rose to 4.4%—driven by rising exports, falling imports, and private-sector production, not government spending. Tariffs and the Big Beautiful Bill’s full factory expensing are pulling investment back into America and lifting output in the hard durable-goods sectors. These are the green shoots of a manufacturing revival—and once the factory lights are on, productivity and real wages rise fast.

Jay Powell says a DOJ investigation threatens Fed independence—but this isn’t about interest rates. It’s about whether Powell misled Congress under oath over the Fed’s lavish multibillion-dollar headquarters renovation. President Trump says Powell is either incompetent or crooked. Either way, this isn’t an independence crisis—it’s a credibility crisis. Independence doesn’t mean immunity. Accountability is the law.