The Navarro Express

Four major economic reports point to the same conclusion: inflation remains largely energy-driven, growth is steady, investment is strong, and the data simply do not support another round of Fed rate hikes.

Not all inflation is the same. The latest CPI and PPI reports point to an energy-driven price shock, not an overheated economy. While producer prices surged in May, energy costs—particularly gasoline—did most of the heavy lifting. The key question is whether those higher energy costs spread into broader inflation. History suggests the Federal Reserve should be careful not to respond to an oil shock with aggressive rate hikes that risk slowing growth and triggering recession.

A closer look at the May CPI report shows that higher gasoline and energy prices drove most of the increase in headline inflation, while core inflation remained subdued and came in below expectations. Policymakers should focus on underlying inflation trends rather than temporary energy-driven price spikes.

New manufacturing data points to a strengthening U.S. factory sector, with the ISM Manufacturing Index expanding for a fifth straight month and reaching its highest level since 2022. Rising new orders, production, and factory investment suggest growing industrial momentum, while increased spending on equipment and construction signals efforts to expand domestic manufacturing capacity. The analysis also argues that higher interest rates could slow this recovery by raising costs for manufacturers.

A cautiously recovering housing market and resilient labor data are sending a clear signal: the economy does not need another interest rate hike. This episode breaks down why residential construction matters so deeply to growth, jobs, and consumer confidence — and why tightening monetary policy now could derail a fragile recovery before it gains momentum.

A look at how America lost its textile industry—and why it matters. From COVID-era PPE shortages to decades of globalist trade policy, the case for rebuilding domestic manufacturing as a foundation of economic and national security.

March’s PPI report shows inflation driven largely by energy—not a broad-based surge. While headline prices rose, core and service-side pressures remain contained, signaling underlying inflation is still cooling despite volatile commodity shocks.

The March ISM report signals a clear shift: American manufacturing is expanding again, with rising orders, stronger production, and growing industrial momentum. While employment and inventories lag and cost pressures remain elevated, the data points to a sector turning the corner—and an early-stage industrial comeback taking shape.

A blowout March jobs report adds 178,000 jobs, far exceeding expectations and reinforcing the strength of the American labor market. Private-sector hiring led the gains, while key industries like construction and logistics showed renewed momentum. Despite recession warnings, the data points to a resilient economy shifting toward more productive growth.

President Trump’s Made in America order cracks down on deceptive origin claims, targeting misleading labeling, weak online verification, and lax enforcement. By aligning federal agencies and strengthening penalties, the policy aims to ensure that “Made in USA” truly means American-made—supporting domestic industry, supply chains, and consumer trust.